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Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
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Today's Convective Outlooks
Updated: Fri Mar 18 07:23:02 UTC 2022 (3h 4m ago)
Current Convective Outlooks
Valid Day 1 Outlook till 12Z
Issued: 18/0057Z
Valid: 18/0100Z - 18/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Enhanced Risk
Current Day 1 Outlook
Issued: 18/0556Z
Valid: 18/1200Z - 19/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Enhanced Risk
Current Day 2 Outlook
Issued: 18/0551Z
Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk
Current Day 3 Outlook
Issued: 18/0721Z
Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms
Current Day 4-8 Outlook
Issued: 18/0901Z
Valid: Mon 03/21 1200Z - Fri 03/25 1200Z
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 15%, 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).Thunderstorm Outlooks
Issued: 20220318/0450Z
Valid: 18/2000Z - 19/0000Z
Note: The Thunderstorm Outlook depicts the expected geographic areas of thunderstorms including 10, 40 and 70 percent probabilities in 4 or 8 hour time periods.
Retrieving Previous Outlooks and Verifications
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Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks
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Storm Prediction Center
Storm Prediction Center
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Storm Prediction Center
The logo of the Storm Prediction Center.
Agency overview Formed October 1995 Preceding agencies
National Severe Storms Forecast Center (1966–1995)
SELS (1953–1966)
Jurisdiction Federal government of the United States
Headquarters Norman, Oklahoma
Employees 43 Agency executive
Russell Schneider, Director
Parent agency National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Website www.spc.noaa.gov
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is a US government agency that is part of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), operating under the control of the National Weather Service (NWS),[1] which in turn is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States Department of Commerce (DoC).[2]
Headquartered at the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma, the Storm Prediction Center is tasked with forecasting the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the contiguous United States. It issues convective outlooks, mesoscale discussions, and watches as a part of this process. Convective outlooks are issued for the following eight days (issued separately for Day 1, Day 2, Day 3, and Days 4–8), and detail the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes during the given forecast period, although tornado, hail and wind details are only available for Days 1 and 2. Day 3, as well as 4–8 use a probabilistic scale, determining the probability for a severe weather event in percentage categories.
Mesoscale discussions are issued to provide information on certain individual regions where severe weather is becoming a threat and states whether a watch is likely and details thereof, particularly concerning conditions conducive for the development of severe thunderstorms in the short term, as well as situations of isolated severe weather when watches are not necessary. Watches are issued when forecasters are confident that severe weather will occur, and usually precede the onset of severe weather by one hour, although this sometimes varies depending on certain atmospheric conditions that may inhibit or accelerate convective development.
The agency is also responsible for forecasting fire weather (indicating conditions that are favorable for wildfires) in the contiguous U.S., issuing fire weather outlooks for Days 1, 2, and 3–8, which detail areas with various levels of risk for fire conditions (such as fire levels and fire alerts).
Contents
1 History
1.1 Brief history timeline
2 Overview
3 Convective outlooks
3.1 Categories
3.2 Issuance and usage
4 Mesoscale discussions
4.1 Example 5 Weather watches 5.1 Example
6 Fire weather products
7 See also 8 References 9 External links
History[edit]
The Storm Prediction Center began in 1952 as SELS (Severe Local Storms Unit), the U.S. Weather Bureau in Washington, D.C. In 1954, the unit moved its forecast operations to Kansas City, Missouri. SELS began issuing convective outlooks for predicted thunderstorm activity in 1955, and began issuing radar summaries in three-hour intervals in 1960;[3] with the increased duties of compiling and disseminating radar summaries, this unit became the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC) in 1966,[4] remaining headquartered in Kansas City.
In 1968, the National Severe Storms Forecast Center began issuing status reports on weather watches; the agency then made its first computerized data transmission in 1971.[3] On April 2, 1982, the agency issued the first "Particularly Dangerous Situation" watch, which indicates the imminent threat of a major severe weather event over the watch's timespan.[3] In 1986, the NSSFC introduced two new forecast products: the Day 2 Convective Outlook (which include probabilistic forecasts for outlined areas of thunderstorm risk for the following day) and the Mesoscale Discussion (a short-term forecast outlining specific areas under threat for severe thunderstorm development).[3]
In October 1995, the National Severe Storms Forecast Center relocated its operations to Norman, Oklahoma, and was rechristened the Storm Prediction Center. At that time, the guidance center was housed at Max Westheimer Airport (now the University of Oklahoma Westheimer Airport), co-located in the same building as the National Severe Storms Laboratory and the local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (the latter of which, in addition to disseminating forecasts, oversees the issuance of weather warnings and advisories for the western two-thirds of Oklahoma and western portions of North Texas, and issues outline and status updates for SPC-issued severe thunderstorm and tornado watches that include areas served by the Norman office).[1] In 1998, the center began issuing the National Fire Weather Outlook to provide forecasts for areas potentially susceptible to the development and spread of wildfires based on certain meteorological factors.[3] The Day 3 Convective Outlook (which is similar in format to the Day 2 forecast) was first issued on an experimental basis in 2000, and was made an official product in 2001.[3]
In 2006, the Storm Prediction Center, National Severe Storms Laboratory and National Weather Service Norman Forecast Office moved their respective operations into the newly constructed National Weather Center, near Westheimer Airport.[3][5] Since the agency's relocation to Norman, the 557th Weather Wing at Offutt Air Force Base would assume control of issuing the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather products in the event that the SPC is no longer able to issue them in the event of an outage (such as a computer system failure or building-wide power disruption) or emergency (such as an approaching strong tornadic circulation or tornado on the ground) affecting the Norman campus; on April 1, 2009, the SPC reassigned responsibilities for issuing the center's products in such situations to the 15th Operational Weather Squadron based out of Scott Air Force Base.[6]
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